Affected in 2009 by a recession more intense than other European countries under the effect of a sharp drop in household consumption and investment, the British economy is currently distinguished by the strength of renewed growth (1.8% in 2013). Forecast at +2.7% in 2014 by Coface, it could be as dynamic as that of the United States and exceed Germany (2%).
"During the IPO, we received a warm welcome from investors, who were particularly receptive to us, both in France and abroad. This makes us proud of the work of our teams around the world to build a solid group, which is profitable and has confirmed growth prospects[...]" Jean-Marc PILLU, Coface Chief Executive Officer
Prior to the forthcoming presidential elections in August 2014, Coface is cautious in its assessment of corporate risks in Turkey. If political tensions rise again, as happened in December and January, investors may flee the country which could result in a fluctuation in Forex markets. Such a situation would negatively impact the corporate sector’s external debt stock, already at a record high.
With comparable profiles in terms of entrepreneurial activity, Spain and France are following a worrying trend in terms of company insolvencies. However, SMEs in the two countries have evolved differently since the 2008-2009 crisis, and insolvency forecasts for 2014 further underline this divergence.
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Coface expects a considerable slowdown of GDP in 2014 (at +1.3% in 2014, down from +2.5% in 2013), due to household consumption growing at a slower pace, investments losing momentum and a weak trade balance. Coface considers 2015 to be a turning point, boosting GDP in the medium term. Read more
From 2004 to 2008 Brazil had grown, on average, by 4,8% a year, but in the former period, from 2009 to 2013, the average rate declined to 2,7%. The country did not take advantage of the good winds to make important reforms, such as improving the infrastructure and the business climate... Read more