Burkina Faso

Growth driven by gold and agriculture

Growth will slow slightly in 2025, despite the increase in gold production. Agricultural activity is affected by less favorable rainfall, falling cotton prices, and the closure in July 2025 of SOCOMA, the second-largest cotton company. Growth is expected to rebound in 2026, supported by the continued expansion of gold mining and the recovery of agriculture, provided that weather conditions are favourable and security does not deteriorate. The mining revival will rely on the reopening of sites closed for security reasons, the formalisation of artisanal mining, and the commissioning of the Kiaka mine at the end of June 2025. High gold prices will continue to attract foreign investment, gradually reversing the decline in production observed since 2022. Agricultural recovery will depend on more favorable climatic conditions and improved security in production areas. The Agropastoral and Fisheries Offensive will continue to support the sector through the provision of inputs and equipment, with more than 104 billion CFA francs (EUR 157.5 million) mobilised for the 2025–2026 campaign. The economy will also benefit from infrastructure projects aimed at improving connectivity, notably the new Ouagadougou-Donsin airport, the finalisation of which is expected in 2026. The services sector, which accounts for 22% of GDP, will also contribute to growth, driven by strong public service activity.

However, persistent insecurity and political instability will continue to weigh on investor and donor confidence. Last, although changes in US economic policy will have a limited direct impact since the US accounted for only 0.3% of exports in 2024, they could indirectly affect the country through gold price fluctuations.

Inflation is expected to remain at or below the 3% target set by the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO) in 2025 and 2026. The effects of the good cereal harvest in 2024 are continuing to moderate food prices and support household consumption. Falling energy prices and public subsidies to contain the cost of living are reinforcing this trend. In 2026, disinflation should continue if global food and energy prices keep declining and agricultural production remains strong. The easing of inflation, combined with monetary loosening by the European Central Bank (ECB), whose cycle the BCEAO follows, prompted the latter to cut its key rate by 25 basis points to 3.25% in June 2025. Further cuts are expected at the end of 2025 and in 2026, which will provide additional support for growth.

Fiscal consolidation under the guidance of the IMF

Burkina Faso is pursuing fiscal consolidation with IMF support to reduce its dependence on external aid. The bilateral programme signed in September 2023 aims to strengthen public finance discipline in exchange for USD 302 million in financing over four years under the ECF, of which USD 131 million had already been disbursed by June 2025. Although still above the WAEMU community threshold (3% of GDP), the budget deficit is expected to narrow in 2025 and 2026. In 2025, this reduction is being driven by better targeting of social assistance and higher tax revenues, notably through the application of VAT on online sales. Added to this is the increase in gold revenues following the amendment of the 2024 Mining Code, higher production, and rising global prices. In 2026, revenues are expected to grow by 4% compared to the revised 2025 budget, while expenditures are slated to rise by 4.1%. The deficit, although higher in absolute terms, should decline as a share of GDP thanks to stronger growth. An unexpected increase in military spending remains possible depending on the security situation. The fiscal deficit is financed through borrowing on the regional bond market, supplemented by bilateral and multilateral loans. Fiscal consolidation and growth will help reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio, which will remain well below the WAEMU convergence threshold (70%). Public debt is considered sustainable by the IMF.

The current account deficit is expected to narrow in 2025 and 2026, driven by an increase in the trade surplus. Gold exports (82% of total exports in 2024) will remain strong thanks to high prices and the recovery of production, while cotton exports will rebound as the sector recovers. At the same time, falling fuel and food prices will limit the value of imports, even though mining investments and the use of Russian private military contractors will boost imports of technical services. However, the expansion of gold production, which is largely controlled by foreign investors, will lead to increased profit repatriation, widening the primary income deficit. The secondary income surplus will remain fragile amid the suspension of a portion of bilateral development aid. Last, the favorable interest-rate differential between the BCEAO and the ECB will help shore up foreign exchange reserves.

Persistent insecurity and political instability, coupled with a break with the West

After a first coup in January 2022 that ousted President Kaboré for his inability to contain the jihadist insurgency, Lieutenant Colonel Damiba, who came to power, was himself removed in September of the same year for the same reasons. Since then, Burkina Faso has been led by Captain Ibrahim Traoré, who is President of the National Transition Council. Elections, initially scheduled for July 2024, have been postponed until at least 2029. The Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI) was dissolved in July 2025.

Political instability will remain high in 2025 and 2026. The junta has failed to contain the Islamist insurgency led by Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and Islamic State – Sahel Province (ISSP), with more than 30% of the territory still outside state control. The inability to restore security is fuelling deep discontent within the armed forces, and the risk of another coup remains high. However, the junta benefits from its control of the state apparatus, the centralisation of power around the President, its grip on strategic economic resources—mainly mining—and the support of Russian paramilitary forces (Africa Corps). It also enjoys backing from neighbouring military regimes in Mali and Niger, as well as continued popular support, particularly in the capital, which appreciates its policies of independence, anti-corruption measures and efforts to regain control of the gold sector.

Since their withdrawal from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in January 2025, Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger have been strengthening economic, political and security cooperation within the Confederation of Sahel States (CES), which was created in September 2023. However, trade with ECOWAS countries has continued during the negotiations for a new agreement. Membership in WAEMU remains unchanged, particularly in the monetary union, even though CES states are considering creating their own currency and economic institutions, including an investment fund and a stabilisation fund, whose financing is uncertain due to a lack of resources and external support. To reduce dependence on foreign donors, they have launched the Confederation Investment Bank, which is funded by a contribution equivalent to 5% of each member state's tax revenues. Relations with Russia and other non-Western countries are strengthening, while ties with the West—particularly France—remain tense. Following the expulsion of French, American, and UN forces, Russia has become the main diplomatic and military partner of Burkina Faso and other CES members. Between 100 and 200 Russian soldiers from the Africa Corps (formerly Wagner) are present in Burkina Faso and are chiefly carrying out protection, training, and logistics missions at the present time.

Last updated: October 2025