Mauritania

Economic growth driven by extractive projects

Growth is expected to slow in 2025, hampered by the gold sector’s poor performance, which posted a 20% year-on-year decline in production at Tasiast in the first half of the year, as well as delays in the launch of commercial production at the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) gas project, run jointly with Senegal.

In 2026, growth is expected to accelerate, driven by full gas production. The first phase of the GTA project, operated by BP (UK) and Kosmos Energy (US), began in January 2025 with an estimated capacity of 2.5 million tonnes of LNG per year. This gas will contribute to national electricity production and exports, which began in April 2025. At the same time, foreign investment will support the development of the uranium sector. The first extraction project, located in the Tiris Zemmour region, is being led by the Australian company Aura Energy, which obtained the final construction and operating permit in July 2024. Its final investment decision is expected by the end of 2025, with initial funding estimated at USD 230 million. In addition, high global prices for gold (39% of exports) and iron ore (28% of exports) will support mining production. Several multinationals have also signed agreements to exploit the country's green hydrogen potential, with investment decisions expected in 2026.

At the same time, the economy will benefit from robust services (48% of GDP in 2024), driven by the development of telecommunications infrastructure. Moderate prices for oil and food, which are the main import items, should support private consumption (53% of GDP). However, growth in the primary sector will be limited. After peaking in 2024 (1.5 million tonnes fished and over 1 million tonnes exported), activity in the fishing sector is expected to normalise. The gradual depletion of fish stocks poses a major risk to the economy as the sector accounts for nearly 10% of GDP, 23% of exports, and employs more than 50,000 people.

Twin deficits will decline on back of gas exports

The public deficit will continue to decline in 2025. The government will pursue fiscal consolidation, with an increase in non-extractive revenues based on the introduction of a new carbon tax, improved tax collection and the elimination of several tax exemptions. In addition, higher gas royalties will support public revenues, offsetting increased spending on capital investments and social transfers. In 2026, the authorities are expected to continue efforts under the agreements with the International Monetary Fund. Since January 2023, Mauritania has benefited from an Extended Fund Facility and Extended Credit Facility for a duration of 42 months and a total amount of USD 86.9 million. In December 2023, the IMF also granted a Resilience and Sustainability Facility of USD 258.21 million over 31 months. Nearly USD 150 million has already been disbursed under these three programs.

In 2026, the large current account deficit is expected to continue to narrow, mainly on back of a smaller trade deficit. Growth in hydrocarbon exports will partially offset the decline in non-energy exports (particularly fish). It is mainly the contraction in imports that will contribute to the improvement in the trade balance. First, imports of capital goods are expected to decline on the completion of the first phase of the GTA project. Then, lower global oil and food prices should ease the import bill. The services deficit (7% of GDP in 2024) is expected to remain high as investment in the extractive sector shores up the high import bill. The deficit will be financed mainly by FDI and borrowing from bilateral and multilateral partners, with the latter accounting for around 60% of outstanding external debt (86% of total public debt).

Political stability and limited jihadist risk

President Mohamed Ould Cheikh Ahmed Ghazouani was re-elected in June 2024 for a second and final term under the Constitution, winning 56% of the vote. The country is regularly affected by social unrest related to ethnic discrimination at the expense of the Harratin community, high unemployment and low living standards. However, this is unlikely to threaten political stability as Ghazouani, as a former general, has the support of the armed forces. Furthermore, the El Insaf presidential party holds a parliamentary majority, having won 107 out of 176 seats in the May 2023 legislative elections.

Externally, instability and the jihadist presence in other Sahelian countries, in addition to the conflict between Morocco and the Polisario Front in Western Sahara, are likely to exacerbate the flow of refugees to Mauritania. However, the country has not suffered any jihadist attacks since 2011 thanks to sustained investments in defence, security and intelligence.

The strengthening of bilateral ties with other Arab countries, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, will continue through their financing and investments, particularly in green hydrogen, as well as the development of trade links. Cooperation with Senegal will remain active, particularly around the joint exploitation of offshore gas reserves as part of the GTA project. Last, the country will maintain its ties with the European Union (EU) and the US, both of which are interested in the country's energy potential and geographical location. In early 2025, the EU strengthened its commitment to the Global Gateway initiative by providing financial support for migration management, job creation and security. In addition, Mauritania could benefit from preferential trade access to the US following a meeting between Presidents Ghazouani and Trump in July 2025, which highlighted the country's role as a strategic military partner and potential destination for US investment in the region.

Last updated:November 2025