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#Economic publications
The trade war dominated economic news in 2025, and all the signs suggest it is far from over. Firstly, this article reviews the evidence pointing to the cost of tariffs being absorbed primarily by US companies. It then assesses the resilience of global trade.
#Economic publications
While overall insolvency figures across Central and Eastern Europe stabilised overall in 2025, Coface’s latest CEE Insolvency Study reveals a far more fragmented reality, with sharp divergences between countries and sectors increasingly shaped by diverging macroeconomic conditions.
#Economic publications
The conflict in the Middle East and perturbations in the Strait of Hormuz have highlighted the fragility of the global maritime system. Against this backdrop, Arctic shipping routes are attracting renewed interest, as climate change makes navigation along them easier. Coface’s analysis shows, however, that within five years their commercial impact will remain marginal, although they could nevertheless offer significant benefits for certain commodity flows.
#Economic publications
More than three years after the launch of ChatGPT, the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on employment remains largely invisible in aggregate statistics. However, it is beginning to emerge on the fringes in certain segments of the labor market, particularly in entry-level roles within the most vulnerable sectors. By providing a unique mapping of the exposure to AI-driven automation of the tasks that make up different occupations, this joint study by Coface and the Observatory of Threatened and Emerging Jobs (OEM) highlights a shift in the frontier of automation.
#Economic publications
25 days after the launch of the Israeli American offensive against Iran, disruptions to the supply of raw materials via the Strait of Hormuz continue to fuel prices volatility. For the time being, oil & gas, fertilizers, petrochemical derivatives and aluminum are particularly affected.
Navigate uncertainty with Coface's global risk assessments for 160 countries and 13 sectors.
#Economic publications
Coface’s 10th Poland Payment Survey, conducted among 326 companies, reveals a clear deterioration in payment behavior, with average delays extending to 53 days, their highest level since 2021.
#Economic publications
The geopolitical upheaval in the Middle East threatens a quiet pillar of global industry: the petrochemical sector. Highly dependent on naphtha , liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and methanol from the Gulf, Asia is feeling the initial shockwaves, with low stocks on the one hand and sharply rising prices on the other.
#Economic publications
Jean-Christophe Caffet, Group Chief Economist at Coface, shared his insights on the key learnings from 2025 and the outlook for 2026 at the latest Coface Country Risk Conference on February 17.
#Economic publications
On 20 February, the US Supreme Court invalidated the ‘reciprocal tariffs’ imposed by the Trump administration. This is a major legal setback, but it does not change the overall trade policy landscape. The United States continues to maintain historically high tariffs, and the environment remains unstable for businesses.
Navigate uncertainty with Coface's global risk assessments for 160 countries and 13 sectors.
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