Stagnation followed by some modest growth
The Austrian economy is slowly stepping out of its longest recession in the history of the Second Republic. After two years of negative growth rates, GDP stabilised in late 2024 and the first half of 2025. The economy should grow modestly from the second half of 2025, while the growth rate should increase slightly more throughout 2026. Private consumption should be make a broad contribution to this growth, as purchasing power and consumer sentiment are expected to continue to improve, albeit cautiously. In Austria, wages, pensions, and retirement benefits are adjusted for inflation with a one-year delay. Following the strong 8.5% increase in nominal wages following the collective wage bargaining agreement in 2024, the Austrian Central Bank expects nominal wage increases of 3.8% and 2.7% in 2025 and 2026, respectively. After deducting inflation, this means that real wage growth was 5.3% in 2024 – the first growth since 2019 – before levelling off at 0.4% and 0.5% respectively in 2025 and 2026, which would still be above the long-term average of 0.3%. In fact, inflation has been rising noticeably again since the end of 2024. One reason is the expiry of the electricity price cap initiative and the end of other energy price support measures at the beginning of 2025 which have caused household energy costs to rise significantly. In addition, the price of the KlimaTicket (an annual ticket for public transport throughout Austria) was increased by 19% in August 2025. From 2026, inflationary pressure should ease somewhat again, once energy prices normalise year-on-year. However, prices for services are likely to remain under pressure as they are very labour-intensive, and the KlimaTicket will also be 8% more expensive. Last, purchasing power will be affected by the discontinuation of climate bonus payments (compensation for CO2 pricing for private households, which can range from EUR 145 to EUR 290 per person per year depending on the location), which were last made in February 2025. Given the increased savings rate of private households over the last two years, these additional costs should be offset by a slight reduction in savings.
Construction investment should also provide a minor positive boost, particularly from 2026. At the beginning of 2025, there was a noticeable upturn in demand for loans for residential construction on back of the European Central Bank's (ECB) looser monetary policy. In the first half of 2025, the ECB cut its main interest rate (deposit rate) by a total of 0.5 percentage points to 2%, which is considered the neutral level. Given the eurozone’s modest economic growth and the stable inflation outlook, two more cuts of 25 basis points each could be made by the end of 2025. Although the key interest rate is likely to remain unchanged in 2026, two further cuts cannot be ruled out if recovery remains slow. This will support demand in the construction sector, especially for housing, from 2026. Conversely, corporate investment in equipment and machinery is expected to decline due to low-capacity utilisation in the manufacturing sector. External demand for Austrian products (roughly 50% of all locally produced goods are exported) should remain limited. Given the strong increase in labour-costs compared to the European average, the price competitiveness of Austrian goods has declined in recent years. Uncertainty subsists over the EU-US trade agreement as, at the time of the writing, no EU-US trade deal officially exists apart from a political agreement which sets the US-import tariffs on EU goods at 15%. This tariff will apply to cars and car parts, as well as pharmaceuticals, but excludes steel, aluminum, and copper, all of which have a tariff of 50%. There are a few exemptions, e.g., for aircraft, generic pharmaceuticals and chemical precursors.
The US is Austria’s second-largest export destination, accounting for 8.2% of its exports: mainly machinery, pharmaceutical equipment and car parts are sent across the Atlantic. However, Austrian exports will also be impacted by Germany’s economic development, its neighbour being far the most important trade partner. Although Germany should generate slow growth (especially in 2026), spending more on defence and infrastructure, Austrian companies can only take limited advantage of this as Austria has no meaningful defence industry. Moreover, the state has begun to implement a strict austerity policy. Consequently, no support from the public side is expected to boost growth in 2025 and 2026.
EU deficit procedure started
Not long ago, Austria was considered one of the frugal EU countries. This changed in 2025 . In July 2025, the EU started an excessive deficit procedure. After the already high deficit in 2024, 2025 sees another deficit above the Maastricht-criteria of 3% of the nominal GDP that pushes total debt further above the EU’s maximum-target of 60%. Although the deficit should decrease in 2026, this will not be enough to comply with the EU 3% goal by 2028. The unusually high level of debt in the last years the result of the high inflation as a result of the energy price crisis and the automatic adaption of pensions, social benefits and personnel costs in the public sector. In response, the government has launched a major consolidation programme. In addition to savings in climate-related projects (abolition of the climate bonus and cuts in subsidies, as well as savings in ministries), the government decided to eliminate a state-financed upskilling leave scheme and changes in the pension system. From June 2025, the health insurance contributions for pensioners increase, and, from 2026, early retirement will be only possible from the age of 63 (instead of 62) and a minimum insurance contribution of 42 years (instead of 40). Moreover, new pensioners will only get 50% of the automatic inflation adaption. The effect on the budget will be limited in 2025, as the inflation indexation and high interest rates costs will balance out the spending cuts. The impact, especially from the pension reform, should slowly become visible from 2026, and take full effect in 2027. Accordingly, the budget deficit will decrease slowly, and debt ratio will increase further.
Austria´s current account surplus grew noticeably in 2024 on the back of the strong improvement in the goods trade balance due to better terms of trade. Given the more pessimistic outlook for exports, the goods trade surplus should decrease in 2025 and 2026. Some of it should be balanced by a further increase in the strong services trade balance thanks to very robust tourist numbers. No big change is expected on the primary income balance (the balance of foreign investments revenues) or the secondary income deficit (mainly driven by foreign workers’ remittances and contributions to international organisations).
Candy-Coalition under pressure
Christian Stocker of the conservative Christian-democratic ÖVP is the current chancellor and leads the Candy-Coalition formed from the ÖVP, the social-democratic SPÖ, and the liberal NEOS. The coalition’s name is a nod to the parties’ colours: turquoise, red and pink. The coalition was only formed following protracted negotiations period that came in the wake of the September 2024 Nationalrat election results and the landslide victory of the far-right FPÖ. It was the FPÖ’s first electoral victory at national level in Austria's modern history. The FPÖ was able to improve on their 2019 score by an astonishing 12.7 percentage points to 28.9%, giving the party 57 out of a total of 183 seats. The majority of the extra FPÖ's votes came from the conservative Christian Democratic ÖVP, whose tally decreased by 11.2 percentage points from the previous election 26.3%, giving it 51 seats. Originally, all parties in the Nationalrat ruled out any form of cooperation with the controversial right-wing extremist leader of the FPÖ, Herbert Kickl. Consequently, federal President Alexander Van der Bellen tasked the ÖVP, which came second, with starting coalition talks. The ÖVP approached the SPÖ and the Neos. In early 2025, the Neos left the negotiating table as they complained about the SPÖ and ÖVP’s lack of willingness for bigger reforms. Then, after a change in the leadership of the ÖVP, the conservatives turned to the FPÖ for coalition talks, which failed as well as the FPÖ was unwilling to make compromises. The alternative to one of these two coalition options would have been fresh elections in which, according to the polls, the FPÖ would have gained even a greater share of votes, so the parties of the Candy Coalition” started negotiations again and formed a government in March 2025 after agreeing to introduce some fiscal reforms.
It is unclear whether the Candy Coalition will be able survive the full term until the next scheduled elections in 2029. Although the parties agreed to tax increases and spending cuts in 2025 and 2026, they have not finalised the details for the budget plan for the ensuing years. In general, the ÖVP and (in part) the NEOS support tax cuts, while the SPÖ pushes for tax increases. Furthermore, all parties agreed on tightening immigration policy and proposed a plan that aims to introduce a permanent quota system for family reunification. They are being pushed by an even bigger increase in public support for the FPÖ, which reached 34% in the summer 2025 polls (compared to 29% at the last elections). Meanwhile, support for the ÖVP lost some ground to 22%, although it still ranks second.