Gabon

Oil slowdown offset by growth in gas, mining and public investment

In 2026, Gabon's economy will be slowed by weakening growth in oil production as a result of existing fields reaching maturity, in addition to low global prices. New discoveries, notably the Bourdon well operated by BW Energy on the Dussafu licence, offer promising prospects with around 25 million recoverable barrels. However, the well is not expected to come on stream until 2027-2028. On the other hand, agriculture (10% of GDP in 2024) will remain dynamic on back of developing timber and palm oil production. Increased private investment will support gas and mining production. Perenco's floating liquefied natural gas unit project at the Cap Lopez terminal, which is scheduled to come on stream in late 2026, will increase exports of LNG, LPG and butane. In addition, commercial production at the Baniaka iron ore mine could begin at the same time. Public investment will benefit the construction sector, with infrastructure projects serving the transport and export of raw materials, such as the modernisation of the port of Owendo and the development of roads. Projects also include the construction of schools and universities, hospitals, housing and administrative buildings. Last, increased current public spending focused on social programs and maintaining fuel subsidies will help support private consumption.

Inflation is expected to rise slightly as a result of the end of the wheat flour subsidy, but will remain below the BEAC's 3% target, thanks to lower global prices for key imports. The BEAC lowered its key interest rate from 5% to 4.5% in March 2025 and could bring it down to 4% in 2026, in line with European monetary easing.

Threat to public finances

Gabon's budgetary situation will remain fragile in 2026 as the deficit continues to widen. Despite the decline in oil revenues (50% of tax revenues), the government intends to maintain its expansionary policy. The 2026 budget therefore provides for a near doubling of operating expenditures to maintain fuel subsidies and finance social programs in education and health to reduce multidimensional poverty. At the same time, public investment will increase dramatically – nearly quadrupling – and will chiefly focus on infrastructure, ports and roads. Although measures are planned to increase revenue through new taxes (excise duties, housing), reduced tax exemptions, rationalised subsidies and digitised tax collection, the government will have difficulty in delivering the budget owing to financing constraints. The prospect of a new IMF financial support program therefore appears unlikely, which will exacerbate financing risks in 2026.

The public debt ratio will increase, far exceeding the 70% of GDP ceiling set by CEMAC, and will include a significant and growing share of local and regional debt (51%). Conversely, external debt, which is entirely public, will see its share of GDP decline in 2026. Gabon’s access to international financing is limited. At the end of October 2025, outstanding public debt had increased by 20.6% year-on-year, with the CEMAC financial market accounting for most of this increase. However, liquidity in this market remains tight despite the decline in key interest rates in 2025 and record cash injections since 2021. Last, the accumulation of domestic and external payment arrears, which reached USD 792 million at the end of October 2025, has exacerbated cash flow risks.

The current account surplus will continue to decline, mainly due to a shrinking trade surplus on back of lower export revenues. This has been brought about by durably soft global oil prices and increased imports, notably capital goods associated with investment projects in the oil, mining and forestry sectors, as well as related transport infrastructure. At the same time, non-oil exports—manganese, LNG and iron ore—are expected to grow significantly with the commissioning of new sites, but this will not fully offset the decline in oil sales. Added to this is the worsening structural deficit in services as the country remains dependent on imported technical skills. The repatriation of foreign companies' profits will continue to weigh on the current account balance. Gabon's share of CEMAC foreign exchange reserves is expected to decline in 2026 as a result of lower oil revenues, which on average cover only two months of imports, i.e., below the prudential threshold of three months.

End of military transition but political personnel are still in place

The 2025 elections marked the end of the military transition that began after the August 2023 coup and the establishment of a presidential system, in accordance with the constitution approved in November 2024. The new electoral code, passed in January 2025, allowed military personnel to stand for election. In this context, General Brice Oligui Nguema, former head of the junta, won the April presidential election with 94.9% of the vote (and a turnout of 70%), securing a seven-year term. His party, the l’Union pour la Démocratie et le Bien-être (UDB), consolidated the general’s hold on power by winning 102 out of 145 seats in the October legislative elections. However, a significant proportion of its candidates belonged to the Parti Démocratique Gabonais (PDG) led by the ousted president. The low turnout (34%) reflects a mistrust of institutions.

Gabon is expected to maintain a multilateral stance in 2026, seeking to maintain close ties with its traditional Western partners while diversifying its relations. More than 90 French companies operate in Gabon, including in the manganese mining sector. At the end of 2025, both countries expressed their willingness to boost bilateral cooperation and the French president pledged to support Gabon's economic renewal and transformation. The US, for its part, could strengthen its military cooperation given Gabon's strategic position on the Atlantic coast and its growing ties with China. Project financing by the US International Development Finance Corporation and private companies is being considered. At the same time, military cooperation with China is expected to consolidate. China is already Gabon's leading trading partner (accounting for 28% of exports in 2024) and investor.

Last updated:January 2026